8z Market Update: 4/27 – 5/3

    Here is the weekly snapshot of key market data across the Front Range to give you a better sense of what’s happening in our market, without prognostication or conjecture. Just the facts. Bonus – This week we also provide end of month data for April.

    The following are critical market indicators for the Week of Monday, April 27th to Sunday, May 3rd.

    Data compiled from each of the three major MLS providers on the Front Range

    New Listings: 2792 – Up 51% from prior week           Properties Under Contract: 2581 – Up 78% from prior week

    Properties Withdrawn: 300 – equal to prior week     Properties Sold: 1840 – Up 29% from prior week

    The easing of “Stay at Home” restrictions is very apparent in last week’s data with large increases in listings and contacts accepted.
    Zooming out a bit and looking at month-end data, we see that sales activity decreased significantly in April, but the market was surprisingly resilient.
    The biggest impact on the market was the drop in showings due to COVID restrictions. Showings had stabilized at the end of March at about 50% below typical April activity, however a stat-wide policy clarification from the Colorado Attorney General in early April eliminated all in-person showings. This second drop can be clearly seen on the chart below. At the end of April, showing began to bounce back as restrictions were lifted.

    Despite no showings for most of April, listings continued to go under contract and close, albeit at a slower pace than this time last year. Many buyers went under contract on listings without seeing the property in person, entering the property for the first time at inspection after going under contract.
    It was not surprising that limited April showings impacted April sales. Closed sales were down 26.6% compared to last April and down 20.5% from March, at a time when sales are usually increasing with the spring market.
    Despite fewer sales, home values remained strong and were actually up 4.9% year-over-year, but down 1.1% from March.
    Sellers continued to bring listings to the market, but at a much slower pace than what is typical for this time of year. New listings were down 36.4% year-over-year, and down 28.2% from March as many sellers chose to wait until showings were allowed again.
    Looking ahead using the leading indicator of listings going under contract, we expect the number of sales to continue to fall in May. Pending listings in April decreased 46.9% year-over-year in April, so May closes will likely be down a similar amount.

    As Colorado eases into opening up, many serious and motivated buyers are returning to the market. Based on this activity, we believe there is more than enough demand to keep home prices at their current levels, if not up 1-2% in May. Beyond that, predictions are precarious and dependent on COVID factors and the resulting pace of economic recovery in Colorado.

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